I was queueing at a dealership last weekend when a couple whispered, “Should we pull the trigger now before the EV rebates shrink next year?” Ten minutes later, a sales lead walked past and muttered, “COE’s gonna jump if everyone thinks that way.”

Sounds familiar? If you’ve been EV-curious in Singapore, you’ve probably felt the same push-and-pull: grab today’s incentives or wait for tomorrow’s (hopefully) lower COE?

What’s changing from 2026 (in plain English)

From 1 Jan 2026, Singapore will taper EV incentives. The EEAI (EV Early Adoption Incentive) cap halves from S$15,000 to S$7,500, and together with the revised VES rebates, the maximum combined ARF offset falls from ~S$40,000 (2025) to S$30,000 (2026). The S$0 ARF floor for EVs is kept till 31 Dec 2027, so low-ARF models can still pay $0 ARF even as rebates taper.

Why dealers say COE could climb

Dealers are already warning that buyers rushing to “beat” the 2026 cut could push COE premiums higher in late-2025—classic demand surge. Some specifically flag smaller-car (Cat A) pressure given the popularity of value EVs from Chinese brands. Translation: more bids chasing limited quotas = pricier COE.

Should you rush or wait?

Here’s a grounded way to think about it:

• Math check: The rebate gap between 2025 and 2026 is about S$10,000 at the cap. If you expect COE to fall by more than S$10k next year (for your category), waiting may still win. If you fear a sharp year-end spike, buying sooner could protect you from a bidding frenzy. (Official agencies confirm the new caps; the “rush” dynamic is what dealers are cautioning about.)
• Model sensitivity: If your EV’s ARF is low, VES + EEAI can still zero out ARF under the floor—today and next year—so you’re more COE-sensitive than rebate-sensitive. If your ARF is higher, the 2026 cut bites more.
• Your usage: If the car unlocks real life value (kids, commute, caregiving), an earlier start can beat theoretical savings.

A quick reality check (with examples)

• Example 1: You’re eyeing a mainstream EV today with ARF ~S$30k. In 2025, VES (up to S$25k) + EEAI (up to S$15k) can fully offset ARF to $0 (floor applies). In 2026, VES + EEAI still can hit $0 if ARF is low enough, just with less headroom. Your swing factor is COE, not ARF.
• Example 2: A premium EV with much higher ARF: the S$10k lower cap in 2026 matters more. You’ll need a bigger COE drop to offset it.

Street talk, not newsroom talk

This is a reader’s guide, not a breaking-news piece. We’re pulling together official policy updates and dealer chatter so you can pressure-test your own numbers—not to tell you what to buy. If you’ve run your sums, share them below; your experience helps the next reader.

Try it now: EV Calculator (interactive)

Use the sliders to test your exact model, rebate assumptions, and COE scenarios. We prefilled sensible defaults; tweak away and see when waiting makes sense.

How to use it

• Start with your car’s ARF and VES band; toggle the EEAI 2025 vs 2026 caps.
• Drag the COE (Buy Now) and COE (2026) sliders to match your view of the market.
• Watch the break-even COE drop—that’s your “wait or buy” compass.

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Disclaimer on availability

Promotions, demo stock, test-drive slots, charging offers, and public events can change or sell out without notice. Opening hours and terms vary by venue and day. Please check directly with the organiser, store, or dealer before heading down.

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Your move

Are you leaning toward buying now or waiting for 2026? What’s your break-even COE number? Drop a comment below—your take could help another reader decide. And if this helped, subscribe at Ngagego.com